All About the Arms, Again

Pitching woes could cast a shadow over the postseason

By: Akino Yamashita
Special to Yankees Talk Shop
Saturday, July 17, 2004

Speculation about the possibility of the Yankees acquiring Randy Johnson from the Diamondbacks has heated up since the All-Star Break.  While the Yankees have made it no secret that they'd love to add the Big Unit to the rotation, and Johnson himself seems ready if not eager to leave the last-place Snakes for a chance at another WS ring, at this point the deal is far from done.  Although current rumors suggest that Johnson, who has a no-trade clause, considers the Yankees the first or even the only team he's willing to be traded to, there is still ample time for him to be persuaded to accept a deal to another team, such as the Angels.  Arizona might decide that the Yankees can't offer them prospects to make a deal worth their while, and elect to keep Johnson rather than risk a P.R. backlash from their fans.
 
The trade talk has spurred much controversy and debate regarding the financial state of the game,  as did the Alex Rodruiguez trade in April.  However, one aspect of the situation that I find disturbing from a Yankees standpoint is this -- that the team might actually need, not just want, Johnson to bolster their pitching rotation.

How did the Yankees get to this point?  It seemed at the end of June that the Yankees were on their way to another AL East title and well-placed for the playoffs, having finished the month with a 19-7 record.  But after sweeping the Red Sox in a 3 game series at the end of June, in early July the Yankees lost all 3 games at Shea Stadium to the Mets, and lost the season series, 4-2, for the first time since interleague play began.   The Yankees then lost 2 out of 3 to the Detroit Tigers, although they entered the All-Star Break on a high note with a 4-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.   Now, as the Yankees are in the midst of another series with the Tigers, a look at the pitching rotation reveals definite problems.
 
Kevin Brown remains on the DL since landing there with a back injury on June 10th.  His recovery has been complicated by an intestinal parasite, and he was recently rocked in a minor-league rehab start.   When Brown eventually returns, will he be the same pitcher he was before he was injured?  Mike Mussina, after  rebounding from his bad start to the season with eight straight wins, gave up 7 runs in the Yankees 2-11 loss to the Mets, and another 7 runs in a 1-9 loss to the Tigers.  Mussina was officially placed on the DL yesterday with elbow stiffness, and is expected to miss at least one start. 
 
Javier Vazquez, with a 10-6 record, has been a consistent performer and was the only Yankee starter to go to the All-Star Game, but was shelled by the Tigers in an 8-0 Yankee loss yesterday to raise his ERA to 3.95.   John Lieber has been good, but not great, with a 4.77 ERA and a 7-5 record.  Jose Contreras has a 6-3 record and a after two consecutive quality starts, in a 7-1 Yankees win against the Devil Rays before the All-Star Break, and a 5-1 win against the Tigers.  However, Contreras still has an ERA of 5.17, and his ability to pitch well in high-pressure or high-profile games is still in doubt, as he had a subpar outing in his last such game, against the Mets at Shea.  Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez shined in his return to the Yankees in a 10-3 win over the Devil Rays on Sunday before the All-Star Break, and led the Yankees to a 5-3 win against the Tigers tonight.   However, one possible issue with El Duque is his (unknown) age and durability; in both his starts, he went only 5 innings.
 
The recent Yankee losses, and the Yankees' solid but unexciting 8-6 record so far in July, can be attributed mostly to the pitching staff, which has given up at least 6 runs in each Yankee loss.  The Yankees offense has kept up the pace, scoring an average of about 6 runs per game (and that includes the 8-0 shutout by the Tigers), but haven't always been able to make up for subpar pitching outings, such as in the Yankees 10-9 loss to the Mets or the 8-10 loss to the Tigers.
 
So, Randy Johnson, and good caliber pitching in general, is not merely a high-priced luxury for the Yankees.   While the Yankees' bats might be enough to lead the team into the postseason, pitching becomes even more important in October, and the current rotation is far from certain to measure up.  Even the addition of Johnson might not be enough to win the big prize, if the other starters falter.  After all, the 2001 Diamondbacks championship run rested on the arms of both Johnson and Curt Schilling, who shared the World Series MVP trophy.  If the Yankees do land the Big Unit, who will play the role of Schilling?
 

 
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