Maybe We Should Just Mail It In

Most experts pick Sox to end Yanks Hold on AL East




By: Russ Rose
Special to Yankees Talk Shop
April 2, 2004

Could this be the year? Could 2004 be the glorious moment Boston Red Sox fans everywhere have been waiting, hoping and praying for? Is this the year Babe Ruth finally loosens his grip on the Curse and Red Sox aficionados can stop chanting, “We’re number 2. We’re number 2?” Well, according to most experts that’s exactly what they expect to have happen.

From the baseball gurus to the kibbutzers at Joe’s barbershop most folks are picking the Boston Red Sox to finally end the Yankees six year run as AL East champions. Boston who came within one swing of the bat of advancing to the World Series last year over the Yankees took to the winter and reloaded for another run at the Pinstripers and the Curse.

During the off-season the Sox acquired Curt Schilling (Diamondbacks), Keith Foulke (Athletics) and Pokey Reese (Pirates) to round out their usual cast of characters. Returning to the wars are Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Kevin Millar and Jason Varitek among others. The experts say that Martinez and Schilling along with Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield and Byung-Hyun Kim will be more than enough to handle the teams in the American League.

The Yankees, meanwhile, didn’t just sit still. After losing Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens during the winter and with Schilling signing with Boston the Bombers went out and obtained Javier Velasquez (Expos), Kevin Brown (Dodgers) and Alex Rodriguez (Rangers). Even with all these moves the majority of the baseball experts think Boston has the horses to finally shed the Curse and the Yankees.

Maybe yes and maybe no. Let’s face it last year many of the Sox regulars had career years. A key to Boston’s success is going to be in how the Red Sox line up repeats its performance. They had a league leading team batting average of .289, hit 238 home runs and scored 962 runs in 2003. In contrast Boston’s team ERA was a woeful 4.48. This compared to the Yankees’ numbers of .271, 230, 877 and 4.02 respectively. Can the Sox roster improve on the pitching and duplicate their offensive numbers this year? Although the acquisition of Schilling says on paper the pitching will improve the offense is a question mark. If the Sox line up can get anywhere near last year’s lofty numbers the Yankees’ days as “defending champs” may be at an end. This could be Boston’s last shot as Martinez, Garciaparra, Lowe, Damon, Nixon and Scott Williamson are in the final years of their contracts.

One of the main factors no one has really talked about is the battle of attrition. Which team will be the healthiest in October? Right now, things haven’t started well for Boston. Trot Nixon is fighting bulging disks in his neck and may not be available to May and Nomar Garciaparra will be out at least three weeks with an injured Achilles tendon. That could be a potentially huge blow to the Sox as they play the Yankees seven times by April 25th. Another concern for the Red Sox right now is Pedro Martinez. Starting with the playoffs last year, Martinez’ once lethal fastball has steadily lost velocity. During his past few spring starts his fastball has barely broken 90 mph. For a guy who throws a wicked changeup and other nasty breaking stuff a fastball that’s not fast would be devastating. His fastball is what makes his other pitches so effective. An average fastball would negate the other pitches in his repertoire. It will be interesting to see how his first couple of outings goes when the regular season starts. If he throws a gem, then the Red Sox can breathe a little easier.

The Yankees, on the other hand, have troubles of their own. During the off-season Jason Giambi, their high priced first baseman, had surgery to repair a damaged left knee. Once Spring Training started Giambi announced his knee was sound. Was it really? Coming off their two game set in Japan against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays the Yankees announced Giambi’s knee was hurting, because of the artificial surface. He was moved to DH for the second game to avoid further irritation of the knee. Say what you will, but this is not a good sign for the Yanks. Giambi was acquired for his offensive numbers and history shows his numbers are better when he plays first base. So what are the Yankees going to do when they have to play on artificial surfaces? Putting Giambi at DH during those types of games puts a log jam at the 1B/DH/OF positions, as there just aren’t enough positions to go around.

Bernie Williams, who has had a plethora of recent injury woes, has sat out most of Spring Training after undergoing appendectomy surgery to remove his bum appendix. However, according to Williams he is fit and should be ready to go by Opening Day in the U.S. against the Devil Rays.

Las Vegas has made the Yankees a prohibitive favorite to take it all this year with odds at 2 to 1. The Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are touted second at 5 to 2. However, let’s not forget about the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. Both teams bulked up over the winter and if the ball bounces just right for them either of those two teams could find themselves on top of the heap at season’s end.

There are roughly 160 or so games to go before the end of the regular season. A lot can happen between now and October 3rd. It will be a great season to watch Major League Baseball. The Yankees and Red Sox fans will be thumping their chests as their respective teams fight for superiority. I’m going to enjoy every minute of it. May the best team win.


PLAY BALL!



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